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New entry Nov 01

Critter Notices

Critters is 21!

Yes, 21 years ago Critters was born. Wow! Thanks so much to all of you, who've made it such a resounding success!

Books from Critters!

Check out Books by Critters for books by your fellow Critterfolk, as well as my list of recommended books for writers.

How to Write SF

The Craft of Writing Science Fiction that Sells by Ben Bova, best-selling author and six-time Hugo Award winner for Best Editor. (This is one of the books your ol' Critter Captain learned from himself, and I highly recommend it.) (Also via Amazon)

The Sigil Trilogy

If you're looking for an amazing, WOW! science fiction story, check out THE SIGIL TRILOGY. This is — literally — one of the best science fiction novels I've ever read.

P&E Seeks New Caretaker

Unfortunately, much of the data on the P&E site has become stale and outdated, and needs a new caretaker with the time required to update the site. The listings are being removed until they can be updated by a new caretaker.

Note that the P&E/Critters Annual Readers Poll will run as usual in January.

If you are interested in taking the reins of P&E, and possess what's needed — at least 20hrs/week to volunteer, excellent investigative skills, in-depth knowledge of the publishing industry, ability to detect scams from not-scams, thick skin, good web site skills, good writing ability — please get in touch. Thanks for your interest!

Interviewed!

I'm being interviewed live on public radio for Critters 20th birthday. For those who want to listen, it's on the 10am (Mountain time) show on Thursday, 11/19/16, on Colorado Public Radio - www.cpr.org has streaming on the site or it's 90.1 FM in the Denver area. [Interview is done, you can listen on the site]

Free Web Sites

Free web sites for authors (and others) are available at www.nyx.net.

ReAnimus Acquires Advent!

ReAnimus Press is pleased to announce the acquisition of the legendary Advent Publishers! Advent is now a subsidiary of ReAnimus Press, and we will continue to publish Advent's titles under the Advent name. Advent was founded in 1956 by Earl Kemp and others, and has published the likes of James Blish, Hal Clement, Robert Heinlein, Damon Knight, E.E. "Doc" Smith, and many others. Advent's high quality titles have won and been finalists for several Hugo Awards, such as The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction and Fantasy and Heinlein's Children. Watch this space for ebook and print editions of all of Advent's current titles!

Network speeding up

I'm switching the connection over to a new, shiny 10X faster network because of all the load. There might be bits of downtime as your boxes learn new addresses and things. Should be brief. Let me know of any prolonged outages you see.

Preditors & Editors Changeover

With the very sad passing of Dave Kuzminski, who ran P&E, I've taken over the P&E duties. Lots of what I hope are improvements; check it out at pred-ed.com.

Critters Server is Dying has been Replaced

See important details here in my blog. Let me know if you find anything that isn't working right. (Manuscripts are now available for this week, FYI.)

Book Recommendation

THE SIGIL TRILOGY: The universe is dying from within... "Great stuff... Really enjoyed it." — SFWA Grandmaster Michael Moorcock

Announcing ReAnimus Press

If you need help making ebooks from manuscripts or print copies—or finding great stuff to read—look no further! An ebook publisher started by your very own Critter Captain. (And with a 12% Affiliate program.) [More]

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Ebook Sales Curves — Sssssssss Hot!

I noticed in the WSJ that Stephen King says he now reads about half digitally.

This lead to a question about hard data on ebook sales, so I found that the Association of American Publishers reports ebooks are now over 9% of sales. They also present a chart showing their annual growth data from 2002, in dollars and percent of sales. It very much looks like the left/early side of a classic adoption S-curve.

I thought it would be interesting to curve-fit the AAP's data to an S-curve see how it fits, and see where it projects it's going. I remember reading somewhere a couple months ago that the major publishers thought ebooks would exceed 50% of total sales no later than 2015. I seem to recall they used the word "conservatively" in that statement.

See this is an exponential function. It grows really fast. The early numbers may look small, but the year-over-year growth rate is still high. There is a significant increase in each of the years -- the numbers double or triple each year.

It obviously can't keep doubling or tripling. Only until you reach around the 70%ish mark; then it slows and eventually closes in on 100%. Adoption of products tends to follow the Pearl curve aka Logistics curve aka S-curve. It's a well known curve, and usually pretty accurate.

For grins I decided to do a regression analysis on the AAP's data points, fitting it to an S-curve. The r-squared correlation coefficient came out to an incredible 0.9677. (1.0 is a perfect fit. 0.9677 is an extremely good fit.)

The predictions from this curve fitting are pretty astounding: Ebooks sales roughly tripling again next year (so 9% of sales to around 27%). By the next year ebook sales exceed 50% of sales, roughly projected around 2/3. By the year after that, ebooks could be as much as 90% of sales.

The sources of error in this curve-fit come mostly from the fact that we only have annual data, and from the fact that a lot of the fit comes from the early, small potatoes numbers. Quarterly data would be more useful. And of course human nature isn't a perfect curve fit; economic factors, luck of the draw on what ebook devices are out there, etc. all contribute.

But the data suggest that ebooks could overtake print book sales and become dominant within a very small number of years. Exponentials are not to be trifled with.

"That's FAST!" you say. Yes, well, let's not forget that DVDs overtook VHS in only three years.

It's always scary to make predictions, but this has all the signs of being "the big one."

DONATIONS

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Happy minion   Happy minion — last donation was 4 days ago. A big Thank You! to Bill Leonard, Devon Byers, Lars Sigurdssen, and lots of other Critterfolk for their contributions!

Critters is entirely funded by donations from Critterfolk like you, so yours is most appreciated. Click here to make the minions happy. Every dollar helps. Thanks for your support!

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CRITTERS DIPLOMACY

Fundamental to Critters' success is how people deliver criticisms. Start by reading Critiquing the Wild Writer: It's Not What You Say, But How You Say It. and The Diplomatic Critiquer.

NOVELS

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HOW TO SUBMIT

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WHAT'S IN THE QUEUE

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